2014 House price predictions

A poll of BBC pundits on 31 March 2014 produced house price rise predictions across the UK.

These fuel tentative grounds that the property cycle is turning just a little bit:

• Ray Boulger: 8% rise
• Henry Pryor: 5% rise
• Ed Stansfield: 4% to 5% rise
• Miles Shipside: 6% to 8% rise
• Peter Bolton King (Rics): 8% rise
• Martin Ellis: 4% to 8% rise
(Source BBC)

These predicted rises look bright, but the figures obscure a fall from November 2007 to February 2009 that the country has barely yet risen above.

And these are of course blanket predictions UK-wide, and skewed by some heated sales in the high-end London property market. I did quote below the often repeated dictum that when property prices fall it is the lower priced properties that go first, and when prices rise, it is the higher value properties that gain first. Logic dictates that this must be led by the highest priced properties in the most expensive areas. Hello London!

Yet Wales as a whole has seen gentle unbroken growth since June 2013, and this is encouraging after a flat graph since 2009. See below:

LR House Price Index Wales 2008 - 2014
(Source: Land Registry)

So only a brave soul would predict the future, yet there appears to be cautions optimism that it may be a good time to buy property for those who can.

Mike

(A digression into the possibilities of) a metro for Swansea = SWANSEA 9 LINES

I have put in a holding statement for the Swansea LDP (Local Development Plan) process for Swansea 9 Lines, a federated group proposing to install a modern ultralight ecological transit system into the Swansea Bay region over the next 10+ years.

It is the blueprint for a very exciting development that if successful, will provide potential spin-offs for manufacturing, the retail sector, tourism and economic growth in general across the region.

Below is one of the plan diagrams of what a developed ultralight© transit system could look like more than a decade hence if the proposals achieve full potential.

 Image

A CALL FOR HELP!

You may wish to find out more or become involved in efforts to help bring this about.

Swansea9Lines is a charity incorporating a number of business members. To be kept abreast of developments, to be included in an email newsletter of the Chairman’s weekly update or to get in touch with the group, contact Capt. Mike Smith IDMountain@aol.com

Amman Valley Railway – Wikipedia

REVIEW – 7 HABITS

It is surprising how much the same ideas crop up again and again across the literature.

I have been enjoying the classic, “7 Habits of Highly Successful People” written by Stephen Covey in 1989, and I urge you, if you haven’t already done so, to read this book!

It is chock-full of insightful and profound remarks, good instructions and personal examples. Stephen Covey was hailed by Time Magazine as one of the 25 most successful Americans, a college professor who co-founded a [then] $500m leadership training organisation called Franklyn Covey. So he achieved a very great success himself and wasn’t merely a dry academic! It is my criterion for my own constant self-development to follow the path of those who have already achieved conspicuous success in what I want to do and Stephen Covey is a model of high note.

Covey in fact says, 1. Learn it, 2. Teach it, then 3. Do it! Because when you teach you change your own sense of who you are; it is the easiest way to change your paradigm.

I agree with Covey that habits are not “a given” in the way of being a fixed prescription from one’s own biography, my having often preached (ad nausium!) that we have “a thousand choices in the moment!” This resonates with what Tom Butler-Bowden calls acting in “the gap between stimulus and response”.

Covey moved the whole success literature genre a stage forward from it’s then focus of concentrating upon various tricks and techniques to get things done. He returns the reader to the time-honoured principles – perhaps lost for 50 years before he wrote his book – that strategies are only truly successful when laid upon the bedrock of integrity, honesty, openness and trust, and he offers plenty of examples of how strategies work well, only once character has first been built, and this  can be done consciously. This book is a masterful synthesis of success techniques and personal development training. Stephen Covey in fact, foreshadowed the modern field of personal coaching.

Perhaps the most powerful negotiating strategy one can adopt is “let me listen to you first”.

I know from my own personal experience that being steeped in a stubborn, life-long habit of personal development training, I have when I have come across a number of newer investors, given them more perspective and knowledge-based services than merely sourcing them a property calls for. But this has brought about the benefit of a change in my own business, which is currently being re-branded to that of property purchase consultant. Win-Win!

Stephen charts the graduation of a person’s maturity that goes from dependent, via independent to interdependent, where the latter produces “Win-Win” conditions! I believe Stephen Covey first generated this term, now ubiquitous amongst property investors. And sometimes the only thing better than Win-Win, he reminds us, is to agree “Win-Win-or-No-Deal”, because Win-Lose, or Lose-Win are never good solutions,!

You can do no better than to drink in Stephen Covey’s eloquent and wise turns of phrase first hand, so to that end, and as a thank-you for reading this page I offer you the link below to a You Tube audio abridgement of the book. Enjoy! Go buy the book for yourself even, and read it in full!

1. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ex9irz2ikDo 1:08:28

2. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2pvga3DfSa0 1:04:46

3. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=byITGFRY09Y 1:10:28

Mike

 

CASE STUDY – ONE THAT GOT AWAY!

ONE THAT GOT AWAY!

The five 2-bedroom terraced properties pictured, sold on one deed as one auction lot.

This property was valued at £238,500 in November 2010 at the bottom of the recession. A drive-by viewing shows that some repairs are now needed. The roofline is damaged in the centre of the terrace and the buildings are full of clutter. The properties were let to poor quality tenants by a poor quality landlord (I obtained this from local knowledge) and were occupied, the last until 10 months prior. The tenants “trashed” the properties. The landlords, had been an LLP (and for whatever additional reasons) went to the wall and the receivers had it. The properties went into auction.

In my experience, when a string of properties sells together at an auction there is a bargain to pick up. I had noted these five from sale boards within my close investment area. They were reasonably centrally located, only a mile or so from Swansea City Centre, I noted the sale with interest and put some investigatory work into it. In the event, a trio of investors I put together didn’t buy it. But I have no hesitation in sharing below with the reader a case example of the degree of work I will often put in for a client.

By my spot values it stacked up like this: Present value “done up” as they are (i.e. without improvements to uplift them) is £70K for each unit, times five = £350,000. I felt the particular and especial beauty of this deal is that there is present and available, Welsh Government 0% loan funding of up to £25,000 to refurbish potentially each of these five units. Therefore, this funding could immediately add value to the buyer’s spend to the tune of up to an £125K refurbishment fund.

The auction guide price was set at a low £125K.

“Measure twice, cut once” – quick calculation: taking advantage of the Welsh Government loan, there should be something in the region of 100% appreciation on capital here, and a potential, conservative £25,000 p.a. rental return. Assuming an initial cash outlay of £175K (my estimate of closer to what the property should sell at) that approaches a 15% yield! A better opportunity than most!

Further considerations are that there would be costs down the line to separate the properties onto 5 Land Registrations from the present single registration, but this is negligible. When I obtained the legal pack there was some contingent, unquantified risk presented, arising from some information absent from the pack (the receivers, as sometimes , being insufficiently assiduous) which we made a set-aside for and there remained good money in the deal.

In fact I had returned from one of my regular trips to England and realised with only a week to go that these properties were to be sold as one lot, not as five!

I have begun providing strategy training to a couple of newer investors, one referred to me and one self-referred (I have now begun doing more of this). I asked these two investors whether they have cash funds at present to put into what looks like a very good prospect. They were short, so I made up their number with an experienced investor who was prepared to make up the shortfall. In the outcome it was the experienced investor who called the shots, and determined our bid ceiling (which he chose to set low).

Then prior to the auction I produced for the trio significant reports: (1.) an eight page desk report. The data confirmed my spot value estimates . (2.) a builder’s report, similarly of eight pages. (3.) I obtained the legal pack ahead of the time that it was put into the public domain auction details (this was done by the auctioneers only just-in-time as it often is!) and the pack was solicitor-evaluated. And (4.) I liased with the grants office confirming the suitability of these properties for, and the availability of and the timescale of release of the loan funding for them. These things were supported by my background knowledge of the area, my view of it’s slight upcoming status, and produced my briefing to the client group. In fact, one unit wasn’t in too poor a condition and could be “cleaned up, done up and let” being my builder’s view. I further established that a rental of £425-£450/month could be charged for each unit in this fairly good rental-demand area (I in fact know this from my own database). My workings used the £425 figure.

It happened that we didn’t get the property, yet it was a good exercise for my trainees. My “experienced” investor presided and pulled out before where the auction hammer fell at just short of the £170K mark; the price crept up to a £169,500 sale in a fair-to-middling, but not too bullish room. I like to be present at auction to gauge the mood in the room, and if required, I’ll act as live proxy for a client (this is a point of contact superior to making a telephone bid, for example). In the present case, you win some, you lose some. You walk away from it and another deal will come.

So, that is what I do. If you’d like me to evaluate an auction property you’ve spotted in the area, please consult me. Or if you’d like to engage me on a remit of checking the South Wales catalogues for you (by necessity for cash buyers only, of course) please enquire. I believe the example above offered better numbers than I’ve seen for some while. Certainly, prepared and careful purchase at auction turns up bargains time-and-time again, and for that reason I do enjoy auctions so much!

HOUSE PRICES CERTAINLY ARE RISING?

Yesterday’s Daily Express reports the Halifax Building Society House Price Index as stating the “average” house price is rising by £26/day and that house prices have risen for six consecutive months.

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/press_releases/2013_press_releases/halifax/060813_HPI.asp

Good news surely if you are an investor with a handful (or more) of properties? Yes. But do not be blinded by statistics. If the rise is centred upon the capital city (and at one place the article refers to “gravity defying” London price rises thanks to foreign buyers) there is yet, some domestic stimulus by the government and some increase in the provinces, and in particular I can report cautious optimism towards growth in Wales. On my local turf I have noted a small number of properties beginning to sell by private treaty more quickly than I would have expected to see some months ago and on one occasion pointed out to me only today, a bidding competition by two retail buyers actually raising the sale price of a property. So good news really.

Couple this with yesterday’s  Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee’s forward guidance, which implies the base rate will not rise from its historic low of half-a-percent for a further two to three years. 

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/2013/ir13augforwardguidance.pdf

Nevertheless, property investment (unless your strategy is to “flip”) is generally long-term and I was taught always to calculate net positive cashflow against mortgage repayments at a cautious, nominal 6% or 6.5%.

That said, with house price rises coming into sight, I note there are newer investors in the market who haven’t known the former “good times” and have yet to experience the joy of taking rents AND sitting on an appreciating asset.